my 2 cents

PRedictions for 2010

In some ways, 2010 may turn out to be similar to 2009.

Before starting my look ahead, I took a look back to what I predicted for this year that's almost behind us. I said 2009 would be both good and bad for the public relations agency business, with smaller shops in a better position to do well during tough economic times.

I also said we'd see more journalists move into the p.r. field, as a result of media layoffs and the search for greener financial pastures.

And I expected to see more p.r. people getting into social media.

I think I was fairly on target with those predictions.  And I think we will see more of the same in this new year, while we're (hopefully) emerging from a recession.  But it won't be business as usual as the economy gathers back its strength.

2010 will be another challenging year.  Marketers will still be under pressure to get the most out of their budgets.  That could be good news for the p.r. agency business, since p.r. can be more cost-efficient than advertising.  But agencies will need to show measurable ROI, which is always a challenge and will become even tougher as more agencies add Social Media Management to their list of services.

Again in 2010, I think smaller agencies with lower overhead will be in a position to do well, while the large agencies may still be in a cost-cutting mode in order to make their bottom line look acceptable.

We will see more "virtual agencies," where there is not a large fixed staff, but instead a loose affiliation of p.r. pros who work together on business as the need arises.  My agency is, in fact, built on that premise with minimal payroll and experienced p.r. pros who are brought in on an as-needed basis, depending on a particular client's needs.  It's worked pretty well, since we don't have to try to fudge to make staff experience fit a client's needs and hope for the best.  Instead, we bring in the best people who have experience and skills that best respond to what the client's program calls for.  I'm seeing a few other small agencies working this way, and there will be more in the coming year.

Social media will be part of the agency menu.  Some p.r. people have been dabbling in social media -- blogging or active on Facebook and Twitter.  As more clients recognize the potential of direct contact with customers and prospects through social media, they are turning to the agencies -- advertising, public relations, SEO or the new crop of social media specialist shops.  Since, in the end, it's more about content than the technology, p.r. agencies should be in the best position to add social media management to their menu of services offered.  2010 and beyond will see more p.r. shops move in that direction.

Traditional media relations is not going away.  Despite constant talk of shrinking traditional media on one hand and chatter about the death of the news release on the other, media relations -- publicity -- will continue to be a large part of what p.r. agencies do for clients.  And traditional media will still play a major role, even as we pay more attention to online and social media.  It's still publicity, but with a larger and more complex playing field.  Targeting, rather than mass mailings and email blasts, will still win out in terms of bringing best results.

Writing will remain a key skill for young people entering the p.r. field.  A working familiarity with social media will be a skill that is assumed.  But above all, the better p.r agencies and p.r. departments will still want young people who can write well and who can learn to think like editors, so they will understand what the media want and how best to present it to them.

 I'd love to hear any thoughts readers might have, as well as any other predictions that we should add to this list.  And in a year, we'll take a look back to see how we did.

And as always at this time of year, we send our best wishes for a happy, healthy and peaceful New Year. 

HAPPY NEW YEAR from NEW YORK CITY!

B-to-B Books: Still sliding, but more slowly

Editor & Publisher gets last-minute breath of life...maybe

Despite the disheartening news this week of Nielsen's plans to shutter the 108-year-old newspaper industry trade bible Editor & Publisher, the news on the b-to-b publishing front may be slightly less bleak than it's been the past two years.

In 2009 (so far, at least), 120 trade publications have been closed down.  Many are continuing in digital form, and others have been merged into other related books.  Out of literally thousands of business trade titles, 120 may not seem disastrous, unless you happen to have been working at one of those titles.

What is perhaps a bit encouraging in these numbers is that they may represent a slowdown in the downward trend.  According to Crain's b to b, about 140 trade mags closed in 2007 and 120 shut down a year ago.

Some publishers have been wisely, I think, using their trade titles in print and/or online as a lead into the often profitable businesses of trade expos, trade seminars and online webinars. The publication can provide both a potential audience and needed credibility.  In some cases, the back end of the expos and seminars may end up as the real moneymaker that helps keep the publication -- in print or online -- going.

And then I read this morning in Bulldog Reporter's Daily Dog that Editor & Publisher may yet have a bit of life in it. Here's their story...

Daily 'Dog - December 17, 2009 Hope Remains for Editor & Publisher: Although Nielsen Media Pulled the Plug Last Week, Mag's Readers and Advertisers Demand January Issue

Nielsen Business Media shuttered Editor & Publisher last week, and sold off eight other titles, but due to overwhelming reader and advertiser demand, E&P gets an issue's worth of life support as the title will indeed publish a January issue — and offers hope for the hallmark publication's readers and staff that somehow, some way, the magazine might rise from the dead. That seems unlikely just now, but mag staffers are taking it one issue at a time. An outpouring of support for E&P from within and outside the newspaper industry, and from readers and advertisers alike, led to a decision by staffers to go forward with the January issue, and continuing to post stories at E&P Online until Jan. 1 when, under current plans, the end of the line will arrive, Editor & Publisher reports.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

And, despite the gloomy business climate, some people just keep trying, thankfully.  About 80 new b-to-b titles launched this year. 

Will pay-as-you-go online access keep newspapers alive?

Three high-profile media executives, headed by Steven Brill, founder of Court TV and publisher of American Lawyer magazine, are planning a fall 2009 launch of a pay-as-you-go online publication that will include content from major newspapers and magazines.

Some reports are saying it will help bring much-needed revenue to newspapers by enabling them to charge readers for content.  Brill, quoted in Advertising Age, says, We believe Americans know that advertising alone can't support quality journalism -- and the truth is that it never has."

My response: Do most Americans really care that advertising alone can't support quality journalism?   And, remember, advertising is one of three key revenue streams for papers, along with subscriptions/newsstand sales and, to some degree, online revenues.

Journalism Online, the working name of the new venture, will aggregate content from a wide range and number of publications, much of it to be offered free.  Individual papers who make content available will have the option to charge for access to certain content, using a quick and easy way for readers to get it and make payment.  Or readers can get unlimited access for a monthly subscription, which Brill's team is estimating might be about $15/month.

They're working out the details of how revenues will be split.

Some papers, notably The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, have tried a pay-as-you-go or a monthly access fee concept, with less than encouraging results. But this idea differs in that it offers, in one place, content from many sources, which is what online users are used to getting.

It's an interesting idea that, if it works, could help keep newspapers alive by giving them bigger online readership and more income from online ads as well as from subscriptions and a share of online access fees.  This can, hopefully, offset the diminishing income papers get from home delivery and newsstand sales.

Fifteen dollars a month doesn't seem like a heavy cost when you consider how much you'd pay for a monthly subscription or how much it costs if you buy the paper every day at the newsstand.  If that's how you get your news now, would you subscribe for $15 a month?  Would the idea of unlimited access to a wide range of media sources appeal to you?

Editorial Integrity: A Growing Challenge in the Digital World

Editors and publishers have faced this challenge for decades -- how to maintain the line between editorial content and advertising.  The vast majority of print publications have managed to maintain those boundaries by clearly labeling advertorials and putting distance between editorial material and advertising that might relate to that content.

But as digital media (including blogs) multiply exponentially and most print media expand to digital platforms, journalists are having difficulty adapting to and accepting the new forms of advertising that online advertisers want.

Contextual advertising is what it's called and it can take several different forms.  Digital ad tools can now place online ads adjacent to articles that are relevant to what's being advertised.  Going a giant step farther are in-text ads, which pop up if you place your cursor on a particular word in an article.  Touch the words "foreclosure," for example, and you might then see a box with an ad or link to an ad for a debt consolidation company.

For marketers, it's like finding the holy grail. Contextual advertising claims to cut out the waste with highly fine-tuned targeting.

For publishers and readers, it's more problematic.

While it's true that publishers can realize new and much-needed revenue from contextual ads, their editors may balk at the blurred line between editorial and advertising.  The American Society of Business Publication Editors lays out precise guidelines regarding the proximity of ads to relevant editorial content, basically saying the two should not be mixed.

For readers, it's also a mixed bag.  We get the convenience of seeing ads that relate to what we're reading. while there's also the added intrusion of those ads.  More astute readers might also wonder if the content they're reading has been influenced by those contextual ads.

There's the rub.  Might those ads negatively impact the credibility of the publication?

My guess is that this type of advertising online will become more commonplace and more accepted.  I'm old school.  I respect the line between editorial and advertising and when I see media blurring it, I become suspicious of the accuracy or validity of the editorial content.

But that's me, and I suspect I'm in the minority, especially with all the young media consumers who've grown up without awareness of that "sacred" line that separates editorial and advertising -- those same viewers who sit through product placement in American Idol, The Apprentice and so many other reality shows without blinking an eye.

The March issue of EContent has has a cover story that does a good job examining this subject.  

Other Voices: Au Revoir (until we meet again) to Printed Magazines

We give this space over periodically to marketers who are not bloggers, in order to bring other voices into the mix and possibly encourage the guest writers to participate in the blogosphere.

Our Other Voice today, Jeanne Byington, recently began blogging at  The Importance of Earnest Service.  She's one of the top p.r. pros in the home furnishings biz, having worked for some of the leading wallcoverings makers as well as giants like 3M.

When she told me what she heard from young people about their career ambitions, I thought it was worth sharing.

Au Revoir (until we meet again) to Printed Magazines

Who can miss news of the burgeoning list of folded magazines? Industry sources estimate that we lost some 300 in the last year and we know of more that haven’t yet been announced or are teetering. Advertising Age’s “Last Page” column, illustrates every category. Some of the most recent: Best Life, Teen, Country Home and Hallmark Magazine to Domino, Wondertime, Plenty, Electronic Gaming Monthly and Atlanta Peach.

But wait a minute. Just as the Arts & Crafts Movement pushed back against the industrial revolution, what do most of the best and brightest communications students have to say about this magazine slaughter?

I sit on the selection committee for a major 2009 communications foundation scholarship competition.  I was surprised to hear the majority of the 31 finalists we met with rhapsodize about their relationship with the printed word and image. There’s no mistake. Many of these high school seniors through graduate students have interned at top brands and/or have edited or designed their school magazines and attend, or are about to attend, the country’s best-regarded communications programs.  And many said their goal is to work at a print (yes, print) magazine. 

One said she considers her participation in Facebook and other social networks to be, well -- work.  When she relaxes with a magazine, she's entranced.

So it’s not just boomer fogies [no advertiser wants their dollars—right?] who unwind with a much-loved magazine, clip and file favorite articles, admire layouts, devour captions, style tips and tidbits. There seems to be a chunk of interest bubbling up from advertisers’ favorite demographic. Think this is a valid trend, that there’s a future for print, that the young editors will discover a profitable formula while there’s still time.

Or will magazines become charming collectibles?

-- Jeanne Byington

Making Online Pay -- Publishers' Ongoing Challenge

There's talk that The New York Times may try again with charging online readers for content, as it had done until about two years ago with its TimesSelect subscription access.  According to Editor & Publisher, The Times made about $10 million a year from TimesSelect subscription fees, but Times management thought dropping subscription fees would boost online readership and, in turn, bring added online revenue.

But online advertising still generates much smaller revenues than print, even though online readership may potentially reach much larger audiences.

In the face of a 4th quarter drop in online ad revenue, The Times is reportedly looking at ways to charge for online access to some content.  Possibilities include charging for a full-access online subscription, charging a few cents each time an online reader clicks on a page, or charging for downloads to readers like Kindle.

 

Some publishers are moving from print to online subsciptions -- most notably The Christian Science Monitor and US News & World Report.

 

But Walter Isaacson, former managing editor of Time Magazine, writing in that publication this week, points out that even as newspapers are dyingt in print, they have more readers than ever when you figure in online readership.  The problem is, he says, the online readers are paying nothing for the privilege.

 

Isaacson reminds us of the traditional newspaper/magazine business model that has three revenue sources -- newsstand sales, subscriptions and advertising.  The new business model relies only on advertising.  He says it makes for a wobbly stool, even when one leg (advertising) is strong.  But when it weakens, the stool can't possibly stand. 

Hopefully, the content of The New York Times will find enough readers willing to pay for it so the stool doesn't tip over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is online the solution for magazines?

Newspapers are bleeding red ink, and many magazines are following in their footsteps.  Magazine ad pages are down by 9.5 percent so far this year, according to the Publishers Information Bureau, and 3Q ad pages were down almost 13 percent.

Like newspapers, should magazines be looking more closely at online as a source of readership and, eventually, revenue?  If expenses can be trimmed sharply by cutting down on costly printing and distribution costs, perhaps publishers can get some financial breathing room.

I'm not advocating dropping print for the web.  I'm old school -- I like to thumb through a paper or a magazine.  But my preferences aside, the printed pages of magazines continue to make sense for some product categories.   Selling the smooth lines of a new car or the beauty and sexiness of fashion items?  It's hard to beat the rich color of a glossy magazine page.  And the web experts haven't yet figured out how to sample fragrance online the way scratch & sniff pages in a magazine can.

So there's still a place for printed magazines.

Yet online content can draw -- and engage -- readers that many magazine advertisers crave.  Magazines, though, need to do a better online job than most are now doing, where their landing pages are little more than ads for the print editions.  Even if the online edition contains all or most of what's in print, publishers have to give readers a reason to visit frequently, rather than only when the new print edition ships.  The web isn't a once-a-month proposition.

Newspapers have the advantage of a new edition every day, which can point readers to what's online in a topical and timely way. The challenge for magazines is to reach out to readers more than once a month, using methods other than links in the monthly print edition.  E-mails are a quick and relatively inexpensive way to reach out.  Tie-ins with other media -- newspapers, TV and radio, and their websites --  can also bring readers to a magazine site more often.  Even advertising unique web content in other media can work.

Building a real online presence will take time and it will require a financial commitment.  But magazine publishers must think long-term so they'll have more to sell once we get through these tough times.

Tough times for magazines

Times are rough in many sectors of the media business, but consumer magazines have just come through what may have been their worst quarter in memory. Ad pages dropped by 7.4 percent in the second quarter, according to the Publishers Information Bureau.

Marketers are cutting back big-time. Magazine sales reps are constantly hearing of drastic budget cuts.  One publisher, quoted in one of the ad trade newsletters, says, "We're hearing about how many marketers just aren't advertising. It's across the board…in every industry."

Not advertising?

Smart marketers aren't halting their advertising -- they're just being ever more careful about where they're putting it.

It's a real challenge for magazine salespeople, just as it's tough for practically all media these days. Read more in my second guest column for Folio Magazine.

Magazine Marketing Excellence

      FOLIO, the magazine about the magazine business, has launched a new site called Magazine Marketing Excellence.  The editor asked to use one of my recent
my 2 cents posts, and it's now up as the site has gone live.

Check it out at http://ablevision.tv/foster/blogs/2008/magazines-so-much-more-print.

It's an interesting site, worth visiting.



 

Magazines... and then some

At the Advertising Club's annual Magazine Day in New York this week, the e-word -- engagement -- was still heard a lot.  The advertisers say they want it; the media say they offer it.

The key media represented were, of course, magazines.  But magazine today often means a whole lot more than the pretty printed piece that comes out every week or every month.  "Magazine" today for many publishers also means broadcast, cable and, of course, the other word that was used heavily at the conference -- digital.

John Griffin, president of the National Geographic Magazine Group and one of the session panelists, said his company is actively involved in all platforms.  "We develop stories from the ground up, considering all of our media brands," he said. 

In print, he noted, the line between editorial content and advertising remains fairly clear.  But in other forms of media, especially online, the line is not as hard and fast.  I think that can make for some interesting possibilities, both from an advertising and public relations perspective.

Digital is the hottest area for publishers.   One media buyer said digital offers his clients the chance to place a message where news is being seen almost as it's happening, rather than in a place (in print) where something is already stale.  Print, though, still offers a great environment for certain products like  beauty, fashion and food where there's usually not a hard news edge.

One advertiser noted that with some publications now, the print part of his buy is the smallest, as more money goes to cable and digital incarnations of a magazine brand.

The publisher of Gourmet, Tom Hartman, told the audience  that "no one just wants to buy a page anymore.  They want to talk about the other opportunities in addition to the page."

In most cases, what they're talking about -- and buying -- is that d-word -- digital.